Showing posts with label baseball. Show all posts
Showing posts with label baseball. Show all posts

Wednesday, October 23, 2024

2024 World Series Comparison: Yankees vs Dodgers Position by Position

The 2024 World Series is upon us!

Like it or not, two of the top 5 teams from a spending perspective are facing off.  The real upside here is that we will get to see more of the stars of the game on the same field than ever before.  This is the first time in decades that two MVPs will be facing off.  This World Series boasts  4 MVPS (Judge, Ohtani, Betts, Freeman) -- the most in history.  And it is easy to argue that the two best teams in baseball will be playing one another for the first time in several years (yes, the playoffs are broken).


These two teams have a long, iconic history in the World Series.  They have faced off 11 times, with the Yankees winning 8 times.  This is the first time they have clashed in the fall classic since 1981, where the Yankees jumped out to a quick 2-0 lead, but ended up losing to the Dodgers in 4 straight after that (4-2).  Who will win this year?  I will take you through a position by position comparison.  We will start with the position players, and talk about pitching in another post.

Position by Position Comparison

Catcher
Yankees: Austin Wells
Dodgers: Will Smith

During the regular season, Will Smith had a stronger offensive performance, slashing .327 OBP, .433 SLG, and .760 OPS over 128 games. Smith's power and consistency were crucial for the Dodgers’ lineup, with 24 doubles and 2 home runs in the NLCS alone. Austin Wells, on the other hand, played 115 games with a .322 OBP, .395 SLG, and .718 OPS. Though solid, Wells’ regular-season stats fall short compared to Smith’s impact at the plate. In the postseason, Wells continued to perform admirably, but Smith’s NLCS numbers were outstanding, batting .346 with a 1.182 OPS. Smith's ability to generate runs and handle pressure situations gives the Dodgers a clear advantage at the catcher position in this matchup, making him the stronger player overall.  And let's not discount that Smith has been here before... this is new territory for Wells.  We look for a strong performance from Wells, and although Smith was an All Star, he cooled off considerably in the second half.  Still, Smith over Wells - but not by much.

Advantage: Dodgers (Smith)

First Base
Yankees: Anthony Rizzo
Dodgers: Freddie Freeman

Both Rizzo and Freeman are currently less than 100% — Rizzo battling a hand injury and Freeman nursing a bad ankle. During the regular season, Freeman had the edge, posting a stellar .378 OBP, .476 SLG, and .854 OPS across 147 games. Despite his injury, Freeman remained a key contributor to the Dodgers' lineup. In contrast, Rizzo, limited by his hand injury, put up more modest numbers with a .301 OBP, .335 SLG, and .637 OPS in 92 games. In the postseason, Freeman’s production dipped slightly, batting .167 with a .377 OPS in the NLCS, while Rizzo didn’t have postseason stats to add to his case. Even though Freeman is the bigger offensive force, Rizzo showed he can still swing the bat in the ALCS (.429/.500/1.000) across the 5 games.  With Freeman sporting a bad wheel, it'll likely rob him of some power (.167/.211/.377), it is hard to put any weight in Freeman's regular season performance here.  In fact, I wouldn't be surprise to see Muncy get a start or two, especially when Rodon pitches.

Advantage: Yankees (Rizzo)

Second Base
Yankees: Gleyber Torres
Dodgers: Enrique Hernandez/Gavin Lux

During the regular season, Torres was a consistent performer for the Yankees, with a .330 OBP, .378 SLG, and .709 OPS across 154 games. He was a key offensive contributor, racking up 151 hits and 26 doubles. In the postseason, Torres continued to provide value, though his power numbers were not as prominent. On the Dodgers' side, Hernandez and Lux offer versatility, but their regular-season stats fall short of Torres'. Hernandez posted a .393 OBP and .417 SLG in the NLCS but hit .292 in the regular season, while Lux had a .320 OBP and .383 SLG in the regular season over 139 games, showing solid contact ability. In the NLCS, Lux stepped up with a .407 average and a 1.022 OPS, giving the Dodgers an edge in recent postseason performance. However, based on overall consistency throughout the season and positional experience, Gleyber Torres stands as the better choice at second base, with his reliability across both the regular season and playoffs giving the Yankees an advantage.

Advantage: Yankees (Torres)

Shortstop
Yankees: Anthony Volpe
Dodgers: Tommy Edman

During the regular season, Volpe displayed his potential, batting .293 OBP, .364 SLG, and .657 OPS over 160 games. He contributed 27 doubles and 90 runs but struggled with consistency, particularly in terms of getting on base. In the postseason, Volpe’s production remained steady but not extraordinary. On the other hand, Tommy Edman had a strong regular season, posting a .337 OBP, .410 SLG, and .748 OPS, and his versatility in both offense and defense added significant value to the Dodgers' lineup. In the NLCS, Edman was even better, batting .407 with a 1.022 OPS and driving in 11 runs, showcasing his ability to perform in high-pressure situations. While Volpe is an exciting young talent, Edman’s superior regular-season stats and his outstanding postseason performance give him the edge, making him the better player at shortstop in this World Series matchup.  And let's not forget Edman is coming off the NLCS MVP award.  Much like at catcher, this advantage is not a big one, but I am going to go with Edman continuing his hot play.


Advantage: Dodgers (Edman)

Third Base
Yankees: Jazz Chisholm
Dodgers: Enrique Hernandez/Max Muncy

Chisholm, known for his athleticism, posted a .238 OBP, .211 SLG, and .449 OPS over 5 ALCS games, struggling to find consistency at the plate. His regular season numbers (.256/.324/.760) speak to more potential, and he did step it up once he became a Yankee (.273/.325..825) but it is hard to say who we are going to get.  Although he brings speed and defensive versatility, his offensive numbers were underwhelming in comparison. Enrique Hernandez, playing across multiple positions for the Dodgers, had a solid regular season with a .393 OBP and .417 SLG in the NLCS, showcasing his ability to perform in the clutch. Max Muncy, though injured for part of the season, remains a power threat, evidenced by his regular-season .494 SLG and .852 OPS across 73 games. In the NLCS, Muncy added value with his veteran presence and ability to hit in big moments. While Chisholm offers speed and athleticism, Hernandez's versatility and postseason performance, combined with Muncy's power, give the Dodgers a stronger overall advantage at third base.


Advantage: Dodgers (Hernandez/Muncy)

Left Field
Yankees: Alex Verdugo
Dodgers: Teoscar Hernandez

Verdugo had a respectable regular season, posting a .330 OBP, .421 SLG, and .751 OPS. Although he had stretches where he was cold and looked disconnected in left field, compared to other options he looked consistent and reliable at the plate combined with his passable defense make him the best option out there. In the postseason, Verdugo looked more like the steady player the Yankees need, though without significant power numbers. On the other hand, Teoscar Hernández excelled during the regular season with a .308 OBP, .490 SLG, and .798 OPS, hitting 26 home runs and providing power from the Dodgers’ outfield. Hernández's postseason has been even more impressive, as he slashed .346 with a 1.182 OPS in the NLCS, demonstrating his ability to deliver in high-pressure situations. While Verdugo is a more well-rounded player, Hernández’s power and clutch hitting in the postseason give him the edge in left field. His ability to change the game with one swing makes Hernández the better player in this matchup.


Advantage: Dodgers (Hernandez)

Left Field
Yankees: Alex Verdugo
Dodgers: Teoscar Hernandez

Verdugo had a respectable regular season, posting a .291 OBP, .356 SLG, and .647 OPS. Although he had stretches where he was cold and looked disconnected in left field, compared to other options he looked consistent and reliable at the plate combined with his passable defense make him the best option out there. In the postseason, Verdugo looked more like the steady player the Yankees need, though without significant power numbers. On the other hand, Teoscar Hernández excelled during the regular season with a .308 OBP, .490 SLG, and .798 OPS, hitting 26 home runs and providing power from the Dodgers’ outfield. Hernández's postseason has been even more impressive, as he slashed .346 with a 1.182 OPS in the NLCS, demonstrating his ability to deliver in high-pressure situations. While Verdugo is a more well-rounded player, Hernández’s power and clutch hitting in the postseason give him the edge in left field. His ability to change the game with one swing makes Hernández the better player in this matchup.


Advantage: Dodgers (Hernandez)

Center Field
Yankees: Aaron Judge
Dodgers: Andy Pages

Aaron Judge is simply one of - if not the - best players in baseball today.  There is no question.  And in 2024, he had another dominant regular season.  He posted a stellar .458 OBP, .701 SLG, and 1.159 OPS, along with 58 home runs. Judge’s combination of power, plate discipline, and defense makes him a cornerstone of the Yankees' lineup. In the postseason, Judge continued to be a major force, though pitchers often worked around him due to his ability to change games with a single swing. On the other hand, Andy Pages, a young and talented outfielder, had a promising regular season but lacks the experience and production that Judge brings. While Pages has potential, his .722 OPS in the regular season and more modest postseason performance don't compare to Judge's star power and proven impact in key moments. Judge’s leadership, experience, and game-changing ability at the plate give the Yankees a clear advantage in center field. His presence alone makes him the better player in this matchup.


Advantage: Yankees (Judge)

Right Field
Yankees: Juan Soto
Dodgers: Mookie Betts

This is the best match up on the field, without question.  Two of the top ten players in the game today - on the same field in the same position.  If you told me they make the same money and I had to choose between them, I could not.  But today, I have to... so here it goes.  During the regular season, both players had outstanding performances. Juan Soto posted a .419 OBP, .569 SLG, and an OPS of .989, along with 31 doubles and 35 home runs, making him one of the most dangerous hitters in the league. Mookie Betts, though slightly behind in terms of raw power, still had an excellent season with a .372 OBP, .491 SLG, and an OPS of .863, contributing 24 doubles and 18 home runs in 116 games.ve the Yankees a clear advantage in center field. His presence alone makes him the better player in this matchup.  In the postseason, both players have been key contributors to their teams. Betts slashed .346/.452/.731 with a 1.182 OPS in the NLCS, demonstrating his ability to hit for power and get on base, while driving in 9 runs. Meanwhile, Soto had a spectacular ALCS, hitting .368/.478/.895 with a 1.373 OPS, including 3 home runs and 6 RBIs in just 5 games.

Betts is just a great all-around player who can do anything on the field, and so is Soto.  Both players support the guy who is just a little bigger in the lineup.  In the end, Soto has shown he is up for the task and his power is following him into the postseason.  Edge to Soto.


Advantage: Yankees (Soto)

Designated Hitter
Yankees: Giancarlo Stanton
Dodgers: Shohei Ohtani

This is the second best match up on the field.  Ohtani is... well... Shohei Ohtani, and Giancarlo Stanton is unquestionably one of the best power bats of this generation.  If During the regular season, Ohtani had an extraordinary performance, posting a .390 OBP, .646 SLG, and a 1.036 OPS over 159 games, with 38 doubles, 44 home runs, and 134 runs scored. His ability to consistently produce at the plate made him one of the most feared hitters in baseball. In contrast, Stanton had a solid but less explosive season that was riddled with injuries, with a .298 OBP, .475 SLG, and a .773 OPS over 114 games, hitting 20 doubles and 25 home runs. In the postseason, both players have continued to be key contributors for their teams. Stanton stepped it up and had a strong ALCS, batting .222 with a .333 OBP and a .889 SLG, including 4 home runs and 7 RBIs, showing his ability to deliver power in key moments.  Big G was the ALCS MVP.  However, Ohtani was equally impressive in the NLCS, batting .364 with a .548 OBP and a .636 SLG, contributing 8 hits and 9 runs in 6 games and hitting every time someone was on base.

While Stanton’s power is undeniable, Ohtani’s overall production, both in the regular season and postseason, makes him the better player in this matchup. His ability to get on base, hit for power, and consistently deliver in clutch moments gives the Dodgers the advantage here. 


Advantage: Dodgers (Ohtani)

~~~
Bruce holds degrees in Computer Science, Biblical History, and American History from Temple University and Liberty University; he has also completed a Doctorate in Educational Organizational Leadership at Abilene Christian University.  He is a member of the Epsilon Pi Tau Honor Society, Golden Key Honor Society, Historical Studies Honor Society, and the Saber and Scroll Society.  He has worked in educational technology for 30 years and specializes in building infrastructures for schools that work to support the mission of technology in education in the classroom.  He has also served as a classroom teacher in computer science, history, and English classes at both the high school and College levels.  His baseball career spanned almost 15 years, from high school through Division I college ball and experience in MLB.  He has coached players at various levels from ages 8 through 18.

Monday, September 16, 2024

George Brett vs Bobby Witt, Jr - An Analytical Comparison

George Brett vs Bobby Witt, Jr - An Analytical Comparison
Is Bobby Witt, Jr the next George Brett?

The Kansas City Royals have a history filled with ups and downs, wins and losses, and a handful of legendary players. We can talk about Eric Hosmer, Bret Saberhagen, Willie Wilson, Frank White, Amos Otis, Dan Quisenberry, and many others. But no one is more revered and beloved in Royals lore than Hall of Famer George Brett. His storied career, marked by grit, consistency, and sheer excellence, has left an indelible mark on Kansas City and baseball history alike. Now, the Royals faithful have another rising star to rally behind: Bobby Witt Jr. Witt's arrival on the scene has been nothing short of electrifying, and his impact on the team has been just as anticipated as it has been impressive. With a unique blend of speed, power, and raw talent, Witt is bringing a fresh burst of energy to the franchise, sparking excitement for the Royals' future. Fans can’t help but draw comparisons between Witt’s early promise and Brett’s legendary career, creating a thrilling buzz around the team's new face of the future.

The Kansas City Royals are on the verge of something special in 2024, and for the first time since their magical 2015 World Series run, they’re on pace to make the playoffs. With 91 wins on the horizon and their first winning record in nearly a decade, Royals fans are buzzing with excitement. A huge reason for their resurgence? None other than Bobby Witt Jr. His presence in the lineup and dazzling defensive contributions have been absolute game-changers for the Royals this season. Already in his third year, Witt has emerged as a legitimate MVP candidate, reminding fans of the iconic George Brett’s ascent in the 1970s. Brett, in his fourth season, narrowly missed out on the MVP crown, finishing second to Thurman Munson, and went on to dominate the conversation for years, finishing in the top 20 for MVP voting six out of the next seven seasons, including one MVP win, a second-place finish, and a third-place finish.

Brett’s career took the Royals to seven postseason appearances, including two trips to the World Series, and that unforgettable 1985 championship. Now, there’s a growing anticipation that Witt could not only match Brett’s legendary career but perhaps surpass it, leading Kansas City to the promised land once again. With Witt at the helm, many believe the Royals’ next chapter could be even brighter than the last. So, let’s dive in and take a closer look at how these two generational talents—Witt and Brett—stack up over their first three seasons, and whether Witt is on track to become the next Kansas City legend.

Let’s take a deeper dive into the comparison between Bobby Witt, Jr and George Brett’s first three full seasons in the big leagues. Please note, that while Witt came up in his age 22 season and played full time (150 games), Brett was a September call up in 1973 (his age 20 season) and played in 13 games.  Those numbers are included here.  

Performance Overview:

  • Games Played (G): Brett has played slightly more games (464) than Witt (458) over their respective first years, indicating both have been regular fixtures in their lineups.
  • Plate Appearances (PA) and At-Bats (AB): Witt has more plate appearances (1988) than Brett (1929), reflecting his central role in the lineup. He also has more at-bats (1830 vs. Brett's 1776).

Offensive Performance:

  • Hits (H): Brett leads with 544 hits, compared to Witt's 525, showcasing Brett’s consistency at the plate during his early years.
  • Doubles (2B) and Triples (3B): Brett has fewer doubles (92 vs. Witt's 102) but more triples (33 vs. 21), indicating Brett’s skill in hitting for extra bases.
  • Home Runs (HR): Witt has hit 70 home runs in this span, vastly surpassing Brett’s 23, showing Witt's greater power-hitting ability early on.

Runs and Base-Running:

  • Runs Scored (R): Witt has scored 300 runs, significantly more than Brett's 229, highlighting Witt’s aggressive play and ability to get on base and score.  
  • Stolen Bases (SB): Witt is a superior base runner with 107 stolen bases at a success rate of 75.89%, compared to Brett's 42 steals at a 61.76% success rate.

Defensive and WAR Contribution:

  • Wins Above Replacement (WAR): Both players have remarkably similar WAR values—Brett at 14.6 and Witt at 14.2—indicating their overall contribution to the team’s success is closely matched.
  • Defensive Wins Above Replacement (dWAR): Brett's defensive value is much higher (2.4 dWAR vs. Witt's 0.0), meaning Brett was a more impactful defender, while Witt’s contribution in this area is neutral or offset by his -24 runs in fielding.
  • Offensive Impact (oWAR): Witt excels in offensive WAR with a value of 16.8 compared to Brett’s 14.0, further solidifying Witt’s status as an offensive powerhouse.

Comparing these two great players was fun and entertaining to do.  What is the verdict?  Brett is a more balanced player in terms of offense and defense, with notable defensive contributions, especially in fielding. His ability to hit for extra bases, particularly triples, and his higher WAR defensively are standout traits.  Witt, however, brings incredible power to the Royals' lineup, leading in home runs, stolen bases, and overall runs scored. He is a more dynamic offensive force early in his career with the potential to grow defensively as he ages.  Witt sports a higher oWAR and better base-running skills.  For the time being, Brett remains the better defensive choice, especially when you count his Gold Glove in 1985.  Witt does not have that kind of performance to trumpet... yet!

I think we can safely say that Bobby Witt, Jr is on pace to be the next Kansas City Royals legend.  Will he be better than George Brett?  Time will only tell, but the future looks bright for Bobby!

 All statistics courtesy of baseballreference.com

~~~
Bruce holds degrees in Computer Science, Biblical History, and American History from Temple University and Liberty University; he has also completed a Doctorate in Educational Organizational Leadership at Abilene Christian University.  He is a member of the Epsilon Pi Tau Honor Society, Golden Key Honor Society, Historical Studies Honor Society, and the Saber and Scroll Society.  He has worked in educational technology for 30 years and specializes in building infrastructures for schools that work to support the mission of technology in education in the classroom.  He has also served as a classroom teacher in computer science, history, and English classes at both the high school and College levels.  His baseball career spanned almost 15 years, from high school through Division I college ball and experience in MLB.  He has coached players at various levels from ages 8 through 18.

 

Thursday, July 11, 2019

Baseball: Revenues up even as attendance dips


As Major League Baseball heads into the second half of its season, there are marked and loudly voices concerns over attendance across the board in the media.  However, in spite of a noticeable drop-off in ticket sales, ticket revenue is projected to increase league-wide by approximately $19 million as compared to the revenue in 2019 according to Two Circles.  This increase is juxtaposed by the projected total attendance of 68.8 million fans, which represents a 1.3% projected decrease in attendance over the same period.




According to Two Circles, this increase can be attributed to the increase in the prices of the average ticket by 2.1% this season.  In real numbers, the average ticket price to a Major League Baseball game has increased from $32.29 in 2018 to $32.99 in 2019.  Two Circles goes on the project that 15 of the 30 teams will see growth in attendance in 2019.  The Philadelphia Phillies (34%), Minnesota Twins (17%) and Pittsburgh Pirates (14% are poised to top the list with the biggest jump in attendance.  The Phillies have shown they are willing to spend some money, what about the Twins and the Pirates?

Unfortunately, there are many teams that are significantly struggling to put fans in the seats -- and by extension -- their revenue is dipping, as well.  The Toronto Blue Jays, Seattle Mariners, San Francisco Giants and Detroit Tigers are projected to have the biggest season-to-season decrease.  All of these clubs project a more than 15% decrease in attendance which also represents a combined loss of just under 2 million fans between 2018 and 2019.

And we haven't even started to discuss the perennial underperforms in Florida... 

~~~

Bruce holds degrees in Computer Science, Biblical History and American History from Temple University, Liberty University, American Public University and is currently pursuing a Doctorate in Educational Leadership at Drexel University.  He is a member of the Epsilon Pi Tau Honor Society, Golden Key Honor Society, Historical Studies Honor Society, and the Saber and Scroll Society.  He has worked in educational technology for over 25 years, specializes in building infrastructures for schools that work to support the mission of technology in education in the classroom.  He also has served as a classroom teacher in Computer Science, History and English classes.  His baseball career spanned almost 15 years from high school, through Division I college ball and big league spring training.  He has coached players at various levels from ages 8 through 18.